World Cod Market

Historical Cod Production

Prior to 1970, the world's fisheries produced over 3 million metric tons (6.6 million pounds) of cod per year. With so much fish available to world markets, the battered codfish fillet became a staple product in much of the Northern Hemisphere, reports http://www.megafishnet.com/ with reference to ASMI.

Since then, Atlantic cod stocks have declined substantially and many fisheries have been closed or had their harvests severely curtailed. As a result, Pacific Cod has become a larger part of the total cod market. Alaska currently represents 65 to 70 percent of the world's Pacific Cod and about 20 percent of the total cod harvest.

Cod Supply Set to Increase with Larger Atlantic Cod Stocks

Worldwide, the total allowable catch (TAC) of Atlantic and Pacific Cod is set to increase roughly 15 percent in 2011 to 1,160,000 metric tons. That follows a TAC increase of 13 percent for major cod fisheries from 2009 to 2010. The primary reason cod supplies are increasing is the larger TACs set in the Northeast Arctic Atlantic cod fishery. That fishery is jointly managed by Norway and Russia. TACs in that fishery were 525,000 metric tons in 2009 and scientists are recommending a 703,000 metric ton TAC in 2011. Cod TACs in the Baltic Sea have also grown in recent years, topping 77,000 metric tons in 2011. The famous Flemish Cap cod fishery in the Northwest Atlantic was reopened to commercial fishing in 2009/2010 with a 5,500 MT TAC, and fishery managers increased the TAC for 2010/2011.

Alaska Pacific Fishery Update

As of October 9, 2010, about 80 percent of the Alaska Pacific Cod TAC had been harvested. The TAC for 2011 is 281,300 metric tons. That represents a substantial 23 percent, or 53,000 metric ton, increase from the 2010 TAC. Allocations for both the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea fisheries were increased.

Surveys performed this year indicate a significantly higher biomass of pacific cod, versus the 2009 survey. The proposed TAC for 2012 is currently equal to that of 2011 (281,000 metric tons), but could be adjusted upward or downward based on public comment and future biomass surveys.

Exports of Alaska Pacific Cod

While an increase in Atlantic Cod biomass is good news for most, it could hurt market prices for Pacific Cod. European consumers have historically consumed large volumes of cod, but in recent decades have imported Pacific Cod to meet the demand created by shrinking Atlantic cod production. Cod exported from Alaska fisheries often goes to China to be secondarily processed. In fact, exports to China account for 30 percent of the total Alaska Pacific Cod export volume but much of it is likely re-exported. Likewise, much of the cod that enters the Netherlands and Portugal is shipped onto larger EU countries.

Cod exports are up this year 19 percent by volume and 27 percent by value. The export market is on track to top $250 million in 2010, as it did from 2006 to 2008. That is a substantial increase, given the Euro has weakened relative to the dollar over the past year by roughly 5 percent. A weaker Euro, or stronger dollar, will make Alaska's pacific cod more expensive to European buyers.