Overview of seafood exports from the Russian Far East in the first ten months of 2008

In October 2008 Russia's exports of frozen salmon to Japan, halibut and flounder to China and frozen pollock roe to Japan and China were remarkable for comparably high rates of moving, according to the overview prepared by analysts of http://www.fishnet-russia.com/ (https://www.fishnet.ru/) based on Japanese and Russian sources.

In the meantime, crab export to Japan and especially to China was slower with the latter compensating its need in raw fish for processing by rising import from Canada. Very slow were also shipments of Russian pollock and cod to China, with the decrease not compensated by rising imports from alternative sources.

Salmon

In October 2008 the shipments of frozen sockeye of the Russian origin to the Japanese market amounted to ca.4400 tonnes, more than 5% up on the result of October 2007 and nearly 20% down on September 2008 (due to the seasonal factor). The overall rise of shipments as compared to last year was mostly contributed by chum salmon, import of which rose by 170% to 450 tonnes. Import of sockeye salmon grew by 1% only to ca.3800 tonnes, while shipments of coho salmon went down by 23% to 170 tonnes. Shipments of fresh salmon of the Russian origin to Japan in October 2008 were not registered by the Japanese customs again.

The average price of the Japanese import of frozen sockeye of the Russian origin in October 2008 amounted to 520 Yen per kilo CIF, 21 Yen per kilo up on September 2008 and 31 Yen per kilo (6%) up on October 2008 (taking into account increased exchange rates of Yen the import price in USD rose approximately by 1 USD per kilo). The average import price of frozen coho salmon decreased by 28 Yen on September 2008 to 296 Yen per kilo and went down by less than 3% as compared to last year. The average import price of frozen chum salmon amounted to 265 Yen per kilo, 34 Yen per kilo (11%) down on September 2008 and 79 Yen per kilo (24%) down on October 2008.

Pollock roe

In October 2008 importation of frozen pollock roe of the Russian origin to Japan remained practically on a par with September 2008 and amounted to ca.400 tonnes. As compared to last year, it grew nearly by 190% and the total import since the start of the year exceeded the last year result practically by 8000 tonnes or 70% and amounted to ca.19,500 tonnes.

Evidently, the above rise was based both on a dramatic decrease of wild catches in the USA which did not let some of the importers and users fulfill their plans on the raw fish purchases by Alaska products only, and on a large improvement of quality of the Russian products which left the problem of rising prices behind. The average price of the Japanese import in October was higher than in September by 321 Yen per kilo or 34% and amounted to 1259 Yen per kilo. That was nearly 80% up on the last year result, and the average import price in the first nine months of the year rose to 1260 Yen per kilo by 17.5% (taking into account strengthening Yen exchange rate the average import price in USD rose by nearly 30% to 12 USD per kilo).

In October 2008 the volume of Russian export to China (according to Japanese specialists, under the HSC group of "roe and other insides" this year the customs cleared nearly exclusively pollock roe and partly roe of other cod species) amounted to 630 tonnes, which was a fairly large index for the middle of autumn when the season of shipments was already at the closing stage. Taking into account import in September 2008 the total volume of autumn shipments for processing and the output for the Japanese market amounted to nearly 2000 tonnes, 185% up on last year. The total volume of import since January 2008 amounted to ca.3700 tonnes, approximately 300 tonnes or 44% tonnes down on 2008. In the coming 5-6 months before the start of the new season of shipments the decrease may be somewhat smaller, but it will not influence the general balance of shipments of the Russian raw material between the Japanese and Chinese customers. Specialists think that very likely decrease of production in Alaska in the A season of 2009 may further consolidate the trend of returning to direct shipments of the Russian raw to Japan.

In October 2008 the average import price of the Russian pollock roe to China increased on September 2008 by 13.5% and reached 13.40 USD per kilo CIF. A higher result in the current year 2008 was recorded only in July when the price reached 14.20 USD per kilo. The average indication for the period since the start of the year 2008 approximated the level of 11.50 USD per kilo, nearly 3.50 USD or 44% up on October 2007. In combination with the data on the Japanese import the above figures are a good indication of a dramatic improvement of the price situation on the market of frozen pollock roe for the Russian producers, however the Japanese specialists say that the outlook for the future is not clear even despite a potential drop of pollock quotas in Alaska by nearly 20%, because the consequences of the world financial crisis have not shown in full extent yet. General decrease of ship fuel and producer costs as well as smaller activity of the end demand for processed pollock roe may become factors weakening the market situation, especially if the results of the New Year peak of sales to Japan turn out to be down on the expectations of the market participants.

Importation to the South Korea in October 2008 was limited to less than 130 tonnes, 62% down on September 2008 (in October 2008 the total volume of import to Japan, South Korean and China jumped 2.5-fold to 1130 tonnes), while the total volume of shipments of the Russian raw to the South Korean market in the first ten months of the year amounted to only 2800 tonnes, nearly 30% or 1000 tonnes up on last year. The average import prices went up nearly by 35% on September 2008 and amounted to more than 10.50 USD per kilo (in 2008 the result of August was the largest with 11.00 USD per kilo), but in the first ten months of 2008 it was limited to 8.50 USD per kilo, rising by more than 1.00 USD per kilo, thus once more proving the bent of the South Korean importers and users for working with products of quality lower than the average.

The total volume of the seasonal import (from March to October 2008) to Japan, China and South Korea amounted to ca.24,700 tonnes, 4450 tonnes or 22% up on last year. Thus, the Japanese forecasts of the Russian production of no less than 25,000 tonnes in 2008 have been true to life.

Crabs

The Chinese import of frozen crab of the Russian origin was limited to only 500 tonnes, nearly 60% down on last year, while the total volume of shipments through the period since the start of the year amounted to only 5650 tonnes, more than 51% down on last year. Probably, larger quotas of snow crab opilio in the coming year will hamper development of this negative trend, but stricter system of control of the fishery progressing will hardly make the situation easier than in the current year 2008. The average price of the Chinese import in October was higher than last year by 30% and amounted to 3.80 USD per kilo, but through January-October 2008 it practically did not change and amounted to ca.2.85 USD per kilo.

The total volume of the Japanese import of live crab of the Russian origin went up by 27% on September 2008 to ca.3800 tonnes, thus recovering to the level of October 2007 but only thanks to brisk progressing of snow crab shipments. Import of frozen products amounted to only 1700 tonnes, decreasing nearly by 20% on October 2008 (the decrease on September 2008 amounted to 5% only).

Import of red and blue king crab in live form went down by 28% on October 2007 to ca.700 tonnes, while import of live snow crab (mostly opilio) increased nearly by 13% to ca.2850 tonnes and import of live hairy crab grew by less than 4% to ca.260 tonnes. The average price of live king crab amounted to ca.835 Yen per kilo, 13% up on September 2008, but 10% down on October 2007. The average import price of live snow crab dropped by 9% on September 2007 to 330 Yen per kilo, less than 5% down on October 2007. The average import price of hairy crab was higher than in September 2008 by 14% and reached 660 Yen per kilo, but nearly 15% down on October 2007.

With the New Year holiday approaching, import of frozen king crab to Japan in October 2008 grew practically by 20% on September 2008 to ca.1200 tonnes, but as compared to October 2007 it was still 22% down. The average import price reached 1850 Yen per kilo, 26% up on last year (in USD the price jumped by more than 40%), however the reports told about a consequent drop of prices, which should be proved by import statistics for November and December 2008. On the contrary, import of frozen snow crab drastically slowed and its volume decreased by one third to ca.550 tonnes. The average import price dropped by 4-5% to ca.1200 Yen per kilo, but in USD equivalent the price also rose by 10%. Import of frozen hairy crab and other crab species of the Russian origin was not recorded by customs, while shipments of frozen crab meat cleared as import of Russian products were limited to only 7 tonnes in October 2008 (at the average import price of 2900 Yen per kilo, 15% up on October 2007).

Bottomfish

The Chinese import of frozen halibut (all species) of the Russian origin in October 2008 kept developing ahead of the last year results and reached ca.225 tonnes, 125% up on October 2007. The total import of halibut in the first ten months of the year amounted to ca.2400 tonnes, approximately 20% up on the corresponding result of last year, shipments of black halibut grew by 16% to 1500 tonnes, while shipments of white halibut grew by 21% to ca.900 tonnes. The average import prices in October 2008 were reported as low at 1.55-1.65 USD per kilo or approximately two times down on last year. In terms of halibut species, the import price of white halibut dropped by 19% to less than 2.15 USD per kilo, while black halibut appreciated by 10% to a little more than 2.95 USD per kilo.

Import of frozen halibut of the Russian origin to Japan grew by 45% on September 2008 and reached 800 tonnes. As compared to October 2007 it rose by more than 40%. In the meantime, the average import price amounted to 650 Yen per kilo, 4% down on September 2008 and 2% up on October 2007. The total volume of shipments through the period since the start of the year practically reached 5000 tonnes by the end of October 2008, more than 1000 tonnes or 25% on the corresponding result of last year. The average import price in the first ten months of the year grew by 3% to 651 Yen per kilo.

The Chinese import of frozen flounder of the Russian origin in October 2008 was progressing brisker than last year and much more actively as compared to September 2008, namely growing by 16% and 61% correspondingly and reaching ca.2900 tonnes. The average import price in October 2008 again amounted to ca.1.10 USD per kilo, 19% down on last year. However, just like last year, the average import price in the first ten months of 2008 was close to the level of 1.20 USD per kilo, though the volume of shipments practically halved to 15,500 tonnes.

Shipments of frozen flounder of the Russian origin to Japan in October 2008 grew brisker and their volume increased nearly 100% on September 2008, but their volume was limited to less than 200 tonnes, twice down on the last year figure. The total volume of shipments since the start of the year amounted to 2500 tonnes, 49% down on last year. The average import price in October 2008 went down below 300 Yen per kilo, namely to 297 Yen per kilo, and in the first ten months of the year it was even smaller at 291 Yen per kilo, 12% down on the corresponding result of 2007.

The Chinese import of frozen pollock, cod and cod species in October 2008 was progressing very slowly, the volume of shipments amounted to only 12,100 tonnes, 5% weaker than in September 2008 and 55% down on October 2007. As a result, the total volume of shipments since the start of the year did not even reach 230,000 tonnes, more than 20% down on last year, but the increase of the TAC 2009 to 1.5 million metric tons theoretically creates possibilities if not for a switch to rising shipments, but for discontinuance of this trend negative for the Chinese processors.

At the same time, judging by statistics on importation to the EU countries, until autumn that trend did not exert great influence onto the situation with shipments of the Chinese double-frozen pollock fillets onto the European market, as the import volume grew nearly by 20% to 111,000 tonnes. The decrease of the average import price by 5% to less than 1.70 USD per kilo was generally in keeping with the prices of Russian exports to China (the average import price of pollock and cod species to August inclusively decreased by 7% to 1.80 USD per kilo). On the other hand, the European import of the Russian single frozen products was rising more quickly with the volume jumping by more than 40% and reaching 26,000 tonnes by the end of August 2008 (the average import price was estimated at ca.2.15 USD per kilo). The latter fact could be indicative of active efforts of the Russian producers to strengthen their positions on that very attractive market.

The average import price in October 2008 was higher than last year by more than 1.00 USD per kilo and amounted to 3.25 USD per kilo, which could be a result of a large share of cod and other cod species in the total import volume, however the average import price in January-October 2008 went up only to 1.90 USD per kilo and did not reach the last year result of more than 1.95 USD per kilo.

The Japanese import of frozen cod harvested in the Russian Far East rose in October 2008 nearly 20 times on September 2008, but amounted to only 470 tonnes. As compared to last October, it jumped 13 times, but the total volumes of shipments since the start of the year was limited to less than 1700 tonnes, though it still rose by more than 20%. Problems on the cod market which appeared in the middle of autumn can cause a further rise of shipments of the Russian products to Japan, especially in case of more attractive prices than those for shipments from Alaska (in the coming year 2008 a certain increase of the Russian quotas and a reduction of the US quotas may strengthen this trend. In October 2008 the average import price was somewhat below 490 Yen per kilo, which was observed in September 2008 as well, but as compared to last year it rose by 23%. In the meantime, the average import price through the first ten months of the year did not display any considerable changes in Yen, with the prices for the US shipments being exactly the same as last year, namely at ca.510 Yen per kilo.

Import of Russian frozen pollock to Japan in autumn 2008 was progressing very slowly (shipments were limited to several tonnes), but in January-October 2008 it grew approximately by 3% to 650 tonnes. The average import price grew by more than 6% to 167 Yen per kilo.

The Japanese import of ocean perch of the Russian origin, mostly from the North Atlantic, went down by ca.20% on September 2008 to ca.1000 tonnes. As compared to last year it went down by 35% with the average import price remaining on a par with September 2008, namely at 415 Yen per kilo, 22% up on October 2008. The average indication through to October 2008 amounted to 390 Yen per kilo, 4% up on last year, while the shipments volume declined by 22% to less than 4350 tonnes.

October shipments of Okhostk Atka mackerel of the Russian origin to Japan were much more active than in September 2008, actually growing more than 4 times on September 2008 to ca.1000 tonnes. However even after that the total volume of shipments from the beginning of the year did not reach the last year result, 500 tonnes down to ca.16,800 tonnes. The average import price in October 2008 amounted to ca.225 Yen per kilo, 65% up on last year. The average import price in January-October 2008 amounted to ca.190 Yen per kilo, 21% up on last year.

Other species

In October 2008 the Chinese import of Russian squid resumed from a halt in September 2008. With the volume reported at ca.100 tonnes the average import price was very high at 6.40 USD per kilo, which was absolutely not typical for the Russian products normally priced at 0.50-0.70 USD per kilo and the country being one of the cheapest sources of squid imported to China. The total volume of squid import since the start of the year exceeded 1500 tonnes, 130% up on the corresponding figure of last year.

The Japanese import of frozen shrimp of the Russian origin in October grew ca.500 tonnes by nearly 130% on September 2008 and by 4% on October 2007. The total volume of the Japanese import of the Russian shrimp in January-October 2008 went down by 6% to ca.6500 tonnes. The average import price in October 2008 settled at 1600 Yen per kilo, more than 18% down on September 2008, but 30% up on October 2007. The average price in the first ten months of the year grew by 16% to ca.1230 Yen per kilo.

Import of frozen herring of the Russian origin to Japan in October amounted to only 50 tonnes, but nearly 100% up on September 2008. For comparison, last year in October no imports of frozen Russian herring were cleared at the Japanese customs. The total volume of the Japanese import of Russian herring since the start of the year reached 7500 tonnes even despite comparably weak autumn results, the figure being 65% up on last year. The average import price in October 2008 jumped from 100 Yen per kilo in September 2008 to 155 Yen per kilo, while the average indication since the start of the year reached 130 Yen per kilo, thus rising by 15% on last year, which was even more favourable for the Russian producers taking into account strengthening exchange rate of Yen.

Import of Russian herring fillets to Japan (according to some information, those shipments were represented mostly by the Chinese products made from the Russian raw fish) in October 2008 settled at 550 tonnes, 35% down on September 2008, but actually remaining at the level of October 2007. In January-October 2008 it grew already by more than 50% and exceeded 6000 tonnes. The average import price, which was somewhat below 335 Yen per kilo in October 2008, amounted to 380 Yen per kilo in the first ten months of the year, nearly 6% up on the respective result of last year.

The Japanese import of salted roe of Russian herring in October 2008 amounted to ca.130 tonnes, approximately 30% down on September 2008 and 5% down on October 2007. The total volume of shipments since the start of the year reached 400 tonnes, nearly 30% up on last year. The average import price in October 2008 amounted to 926 Yen per kilo, 11% down on September 2008 and 3% up on October 2007. From the beginning of the year the average price amounted to ca.955 Yen per kilo, more than 205 Yen or nearly 28% up on last year.

Import of live sea urchins to Japan in October 2008 was much more active than in September 2008, rising by more than 300% to 1000 tonnes, though displaying a decrease on October 2007 by 24%. The total volume of shipments since the start of the year amounted to only ca.8900 tonnes, 19% down on last year, according to the official figures. The average import price in October amounted to 523 Yen per kilo, 200 Yen per kilo down on September 2008 and 3% up on October 2007. The average indication through the period under analysis rose by 18% to 580 Yen per kilo.

Import of pollock-based surimi to the South Korea in October 2008 was not registered again, while import of the product to Japan went down more than 4 times on September 2008 and amounted to only 50 tonnes. However, the total volume of shipments since the start of the year reached 280 tonnes. Against the background of a complete absence of shipments in the previous years that fact was worth noticing, moreover that the average import price was much higher (in September 2008 it reached ca.490 Yen per kilo and in October 2008 it dropped to 475 Yen per kilo) and only 5-10% below the average prices of the standard US products. In January-October 2008 the average import price for the Russian pollock surimi amounted to 485 Yen per kilo, approximately 30 Yen per kilo up on the US prices. The South Korean import of the Russian products by the end of October 2008 amounted to 360 tonnes, while last year it was also absent. The average price settled at 3.30 USD per kilo CIF, thus the total value exceeded 2.2 million USD.