Outlook for Russian seafood exports to 2030

By 2030, the volume of export of Russian fish products may grow to $8.85 billion, which is higher than the target of the Ministry of Agriculture of $8.5 billion. The forecast takes into account fish production, sanctions, competition and the needs of the domestic market. However, it will be difficult to achieve such indicators as the fishing industry is limited by abundance of commercial stocks, and foreign competition has intensified in the last two years.

In 2023, fishermen shipped fish and seafood worth $5.8 billion, which is 12.5% of the total agricultural exports ($43.5 billion). The leaders are cereals (37.4%) and fat-and-oil products (19.5%).

Geography

Russia supplies fish to 80 countries around the world, but exports are concentrated in four markets: China ($2.8 billion), Korea ($803.9 million), the EU ($779.3 million) and Japan ($758.6 million). 45% of exports go to unfriendly countries, which creates risks of decline.

The strategic goal is to expand supplies to "friendly and supportive countries": BRICS partners, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. The change of direction will affect only the EU where the volume of supplies will decrease to $570.4 million or 6.5% in 2030.

China may increase purchases to $4.88 billion (55%), Korea — to $1.48 billion (16.7%), Japan — to $1.41 billion (15.9%).

Whitefish

Russia exports mainly fillets and minced meat from pollock and cod to the EU. In 2023, shipments brought in $768 million, which is 95% of all shipments.

Russian and Chinese products account for more than 80% of pollock purchased by Europe.

The EU excluded Russian fish from tariff quotas for 2024-2026, which led to an increase in duties on pollock and cod. Supplies of pollock fillets from Russia decreased by 10%, from China — by 61%, from the USA — increased by 87%.

Exports of fish products to the EU in the first half of 2024 decreased by 32.3% year-on-year, to $329.4 million.

EU sanctions will lead to a decrease in the volume of supplies, but Russia can redirect volumes to "friendly" regions. European processors and consumers may face rising prices, as a result.

Biomass

The FAO predicts a 10% reduction in usable biomass by the middle of the century.

The main fisheries will remain at the current level as exports will grow due to deep processing of products. Meanwhile demand for Russian surimi is growing in China, Japan and Korea.