Developments in key markets for fish products from Russian and American Pacific fisheries as per mid-December 2011

Looking at Authorities decisions both Russian and American catch of Alaska pollock will stay reasonably high next year.  It can guarantee stability to markets and possibly even supply increase, but it is not clear whether prices could meet producers' requests as economic situation is not too good in Europe, Japan, and USA, reports http://www.megafishnet.com/ with reference to Russian, American and Japanese sources.

Alaska pollock - on December, 12 the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) fixed APO TAC for 2012 at 1.200 million MT, making just 4% cut to 2011 quota.  This is close to actual catch for the two seasons in 2011 including bycatch.

There will surely be serious changes in 2012 production programs, related not only to fishing conditions, but on market reasons, which could be either positive, or negative. However, it is already clear that one thing is stable for the A-season.  It is MSC certificate for US pollock, and absence of it for Russian one.  As sustainability is the current market trend not only in Europe, this certificate is important for processors, packers and retailers not only in Europe, but in America and China.

Russian fisheries have not received the certificate as yet, and it is clear now there is no chance to get it before end of May.  There are different opinions why the term is permanently shifted (June 2010 - early 2011 - end 2011 - April 2012 - ...).  Some people think it is American intrigues, others say it is low qualification of the Russian party, there are people who say it is normal MSC procedure. Anyway, the certificate for A-season product cannot be received before the catch is processed.  Of course, it's impossible to be sure this delay is the last one as now and then we hear that Russian fisheries are not transparent enough, and there are problems studying stock in two large regions simultaneously.

Pollock roes - Customs information from Japan, Korea and China show that supply of Russian products to these markets increased substantially while information on production in Sea of Okhotsk slightly decreased this year. The reason for it is probably the fact that the roe is normally stored for two or more years before processing.  Another possible reason - quick customs clearance before the New Year season.  Of course some discrepancy was caused by Chinese statistics as it doesn't distinguish species. 

General Chinese import in October decreased about 15% to 300 MT, and average import price CIF went down about 75%, but most probably high September price was determined by supply of salmon roe.

Import of pollock roe from Russia to Japan, China, South Korea in 2010-2011

Under these consumptions we could estimate that China increased import of Russian roes in October by 65%, while total Chinese import of Russian pollock roe in 10 months went up 43%, comprising about 3.9 th.MT.  If we compare periods March-October, total volume of Russian frozen roe volume could increase 56% and reach 3.6 th. MT including roe of other species.

As for seasonal supply of Russian product to South Korea, it's necessary to mention that price level went up 17% and average price reached $9.05/kg.  There is great difference with customs registered price to China ($9.45) as Chinese statistics mainly show salmon roe price, but Korean price is for pollock roe, and it actually means that Korean market consumes more high grade roe.  As for immature roe products for other segments of domestic market, they were mainly produced from US raw material imported at price below $4.00.

Total import for March-October comprised 5.9 th. MT - 45% increase.  If the tendency is stable, total Korean import in 2011 could reach 7.5 th MT.

American 10-months supply to Japan increased 10% while Russian supply dropped 3% to 23.0 th.MT.  Average price went 5% down to JPY755/kg.  Taking into account exchange rate movements, US$ price actually increased 3-4% and reached $9.30/kg.

Total import of Russian roes to Japan, South Korea and China reached 32.55 th MT by November.  It is approximately 7.5% more than for the same period 2010.  Possibly, total seasonal volume will be not much more than a year ago, but supply cut will probably not happen as it is very difficult to imagine that import to the three countries in November - February will be less than 1.2 th MT (total import for the previous season - March to February - reached 33.7 th MT).  More than 6% cut of TAC in the major three zones - to 862.0 th. MT makes some questions whether next year production could stay at 2010-2011 level, but this is all we can say for now.

Import of frozen pollock roe from USA to Japan, Korea, China in 2010-2011